Tourism Impact Assessment for Katla Geopark, Iceland
This project applies GIS-based spatial analysis to assess tourism impacts in Katla Geopark, Iceland. Using ArcGIS Pro, a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) was conducted by integrating raster and vector datasets including slope, soil sensitivity, land cover, elevation, wilderness proximity, and trail conditions. Each variable was classified and weighted to generate composite surfaces of ecological sensitivity and recommended protection levels. Additional spatial analyses included buffering of infrastructure and tourist attractions, overlay analysis to assess proximity to sensitive areas, and spatial joins to examine relationships between trail conditions and environmental variables. The resulting maps identify priority conservation zones and areas suitable for sustainable tourism development, demonstrating how GIS can support data-driven environmental planning and resource management.
1) Where are the most ecologically sensitive areas within Katla Geopark based on combined environmental variables?
2) Which areas are most suitable for tourism development when accounting for sensitive or high-protection zones?
Tourism data (2012–2022) were analyzed in Excel to examine regional distribution, seasonality, and growth patterns. In ArcGIS Pro, a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) was performed using slope, soil type, and land cover to generate an ecological sensitivity surface, with variables classified and combined through additive overlay. Trail condition indices were derived by aggregating impact factors and classified into five categories, then analyzed using spatial joins to examine relationships with environmental variables. Wilderness areas were delineated using buffer analysis around roads and settlements, followed by a difference operation to isolate undisturbed regions. Finally, protected areas, wilderness rankings, and ecological sensitivity were integrated using weighted overlay to produce recommended protection zones, and buffer analyses (500 m, 1 km, 2 km) around tourist attractions were used to assess proximity to these zones.
Katla Geopark is a protected natural area and a tourist attraction located in the southern part of Iceland (Fig. 1). It contains various land cover types, including wetlands, heathland, glaciers, and grassland. Katla Geopark covers 9,527km2, or roughly 9% of Iceland.
Seasonality in Iceland is very high, which indicates a high reliance on the summer months for tourism income. In the summer of 2022, the South region experienced 28% of Iceland’s total peak overnight stays. However, seasonality in the South region has decreased between 2012 and 2022 (Fig. 2), despite a 137% increase between 2012 and 2022 in the number of summer overnight stays in the region. This is in line with the trend towards less seasonality in all regions (Fig. 3).
The two largest wilderness areas are in the glacial areas in the north and southwest (Fig. 3).
Regions of Katla Geopark with high ecological sensitivity are the central regions, the regions to the west of the southern glacier (Myrdalsjökull), and a strip that contains Lake Langisjor, which lies southwest of the northern glacier (Vatnajökull). The extremely sensitive region is a patch south of the glacier in the southwest (Tinfjallajökull) (Fig. 4).
A general trend is observed of trail condition degrading in areas with steeper slopes (Fig. 5). Another notable trend is that grassland, shrub and forest, partly vegetated, and wetland areas have a wider range of trail conditions and a much lower area of trail samples classified as very good than the other land use classes do. The areas with lower ecological sensitivity have a higher portion of trails classified as very good than the areas with higher ecological sensitivity. Areas with higher soil sensitivity have decreasing trail conditions.
The northern portion, including the glaciated area, of Katla Geopark warrants a high level of environmental protection. All high-protection attractions in Katla Geopark are in the north-central region (Fig. 6).
Ecologically sensitive areas are concentrated in central and glacial regions, with some zones—particularly near Vatnajökull—requiring the highest level of protection due to steep slopes and fragile soils. While certain sensitive areas lack strong legal protection, many tourist sites are located near or within moderate to high protection zones, emphasizing the need for careful spatial planning. Trail analysis also shows that environmental degradation is linked to slope and soil sensitivity, even in popular hiking areas like Thorsmörk.
These findings demonstrate how GIS-based spatial planning can support sustainable tourism management by identifying environmentally resilient areas for future infrastructure and recreation development. The analysis also highlights the importance of integrating ecological sensitivity into tourism planning frameworks within rapidly growing nature-based destinations.
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